Redundancy Watch - 25% of companies to make redundancies

[Warwick-Watcher]

https://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/news/articles/one-in-four-expect-to-make-redundancies-coronavirus

IAG (British Airways)

Enquest

Cath Kidston

Laura Ashley

[stop_the_craziness]

All companies that were halfway to hell in a handcart before this. The virus is going to be one hell of a cover for anyone that's been on the Private Equity Debt Skids and has finally fallen into the inevitable ditch.

[Patfig]

End of the month carnage time

[stop_the_craziness]

I'm very interested in keeping abreast of the HSBC not-now-redundancies too. Turns out the exceptional circumstances of their recent massive government handout that they haven't passed on to the businesses it was "destined" for seems to have coincided with that decision. Who would have guessed that?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52450850

[winkie]

People rely on other people spending......or debt put into the pockets of others to stay afloat or spend keeping evermore people solvent.

[crumblingcon]

And lack of moral hazard raises it's head yet again.

Long live the zombie companies

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

And lack of moral hazard raises it's head yet again.

Long live the zombie companies

Moral Hazard.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard

....they not allowed to live, the rest will die with them.....couldn't make it up.

[Trump Invective]

Beeb - "1,5bn workers at risk of having livelihood destroyed, especially in informal economy - UN labour organisation"

Not to panic anyone or anything...

[scottbeard]

10 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said:

All companies that were halfway to hell in a handcart before this. The virus is going to be one hell of a cover for anyone that's been on the Private Equity Debt Skids and has finally fallen into the inevitable ditch.

Coronavirus has essentially brought forward economic shifts that were happening anyway and would have happened over the next 5 years in any event:

Working from home … greater shift to online shopping … demise to virtually zero of using cash … Debenhams going bust ...

All of these were being talked about not just on this site but on mainstream media already.

No-one enjoyed cramming onto commuter trains for hours just to sit tapping away at a laptop next to other people doing the same. In retrospect it will seem odd it took COVID19 to shake us out of it.

Yes, it will cause a recession, and recessions inevitably cause redundancies. But again, we were overdue a recession some 12 years since the last one. And recessions end.

People are talking like its an economic apocalypse - but it really won't be for long. I just feel sorry for the businesses that actually are long term good ones, that could get finished off by COVID19, like some small independent cafes etc. What will happen is the café goes bust, and immediately reopens as another café run by someone else. 20 years from now there will be equal numbers of stories that read "COVID19 killed my business" and "COVID19 gave me the opportunity I'd always dreamed of" - it just doesn't seem like that now, and the positives are cold comfort to the people who get the negatives.

[crumblingcon]

Only a 5 week lockdown so far and yet so many companies and businesses ready to fold, even big names going on what I have read today. I know things are tough, even I have lost a lot of work, but I am far more crisis adverse than these guys and can last way longer if need be, their cashflows must have been constantly on the brink

Edited April 29, 2020 by crumblingcon

[VancouverGuy]

Remember no wealth has been created or destroyed by this virus, it's just changed hands.

[nome]

Royal Mail have been after reducing the USO for delivering letters from 6 days a week down to 5 (which would result in around 20,000 job losses)

Looks like they've sneaked it in through the back door courtesy of CV-19 by ''temporarily'' suspending Saturday letter deliveries.

Edited April 30, 2020 by nome

[Patfig]

Amazing that with all the doom and gloom and bad economic predictions that are flying about the stock market seems to be in denial.

[jiltedjen]

38 minutes ago, Patfig said:

Amazing that with all the doom and gloom and bad economic predictions that are flying about the stock market seems to be in denial.

i guess it depends if you see the stock markets as a sign of the health of the economy or a result of money printing.

The 'recovery' since 2008 was been extremely weak in the real economy but the flood of liquidity has hidden it. Stands to reason that regardless of the state of the economy that stock markets will prime themselves for massive cash injections.

i actually think the whole virus thing has been hugely healthy for the stock markets, they have corrected, and not fully crashed, it means the longest period of growth continues, but now with a lot of the froth now taken out of it.

in a world where markets are measured in fiat currency, which they can, will and do, print at will, means that the only way for the markets to go, is not down, but only forever onwards until we get the mother of blow off tops, and that probably won't happen until something like 2029, the blow of top might of been much sooner than that, but the virus has corrected the markets.

now and the next few weeks and months is only a buying opportunity, i could easily see the stock market double and triple from here. And i don't think the stock market has all that much to do with the real economy, it will be the tail wagging the dog, companies will needlessly expand given 'the good times are back' rent much bigger places expecting demand to follow the huge stock market rises, and then come 2029, everyone will realise demand is not coming back, the huge new buildings and massive expansions are not being backed up by orders, someone will do something extremely stupid and obvious and trigger the shoe-shine boy moment.

the final straw to a real crash will be something painfully obvious, and hard to ignore, it will touch the nerve thats hidden in the back of people's mind that 'this doesn't feel right' and just like that it cascades.

it may take 12 months to clear this correction out, but as people get new jobs, probably better paid than previous roles for the skilled workers at least, pent up demand will flood the markets.

anyone on here long enough has been stream-rollered by central banks, government support etc. The quest for dirt cheap houses became the quest for house of at least fair value, which then became, house to put my family in, which then became buying a house knowing that the system will inflate away any debts and even the poorest of financial decisions will be bailed out, mortgage holidays, car finance holidays, when the system is sooo awash with debt, when the majority of people live that way you are safe, forget moral hazard, that concept doesn't even exist anymore.

the virus is not the HPC's friend, it actually only plays into the bankers, it allows the money printing and stock markets to continue growing. now and the following 6 months is probably the best value you can get in houses and shares, thats if you can find anyone willing to sell quickly, and a 6 month buying period risks falling through as the vendors see things pick up just as your finally ready to complete the transaction, the real winners as always will be cash buyers (im sure HPC does actually have a lot of cash buyers!).

this is no golden dawn for HPC sadly. it's just a much needed correct 'healthy' i suppose you could say for the stock markets.

a blow of top is HPC friend, and thats just been delayed for years more.

Edited April 30, 2020 by jiltedjen

[scottbeard]

4 hours ago, VancouverGuy said:

Remember no wealth has been created or destroyed by this virus, it's just changed hands.

That's completely untrue.

Someone who was all ready to work but was forced to stay at home due to lockdown has lost a week's work, and that time can never be regained. There's no compensating increase somewhere else - it's just gone. Anything they would have built, made, demolished, painted, written, served, cooked etc now hasn't happened. The world in total has lost value, and hence wealth.

Yes it's true that some people have done well out of the virus (Zoom! Amazon!) and some badly (Pubs! Cafes!) but the grand total if you add it all up must be negative, because less work has been done.

[Take Me Back To London!]

3 hours ago, nome said:

Royal Mail have been after reducing the USO for delivering letters from 6 days a week down to 5 (which would result in around 20,000 job losses)

Looks like they've sneaked it in through the back door courtesy of CV-19 by ''temporarily'' suspending Saturday letter deliveries.

+1

I think that is an excellent observational example and comment. I believe that COVID-19 will be used as an excuse to change many things permanently, under the guise of temporary measures in some cases, and to speed up changes already under way in society.

[Brave New World]

L shaped and the black swan event that will finally deliver the terrible reality and fall out from 2008

The can is now hitting a wall

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid

[scottbeard]

10 minutes ago, Take Me Back To London! said:

I think that is an excellent observational example and comment. I believe that COVID-19 will be used as an excuse to change many things permanently, under the guise of temporary measures in some cases, and to speed up changes already under way in society.

Definitely. Actually, that may even prove to have been a good thing in retrospect - accelerating inevitable changes.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

4 hours ago, nome said:

Royal Mail have been after reducing the USO for delivering letters from 6 days a week down to 5 (which would result in around 20,000 job losses)

Looks like they've sneaked it in through the back door courtesy of CV-19 by ''temporarily'' suspending Saturday letter deliveries.

For me out of all the delivery companies, Royal Mail have been by far the worst during covid.

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Definitely. Actually, that may even prove to have been a good thing in retrospect - accelerating inevitable changes.

No change is inevitable. Some are very, very likely. More than some in fact, a great number of them. And the future looks crap because of them so I wouldn't be in a hurry to label accelerating them as a good thing.

[Take Me Back To London!]

38 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No change is inevitable. Some are very, very likely. More than some in fact, a great number of them. And the future looks crap because of them so I wouldn't be in a hurry to label accelerating them as a good thing.

There are going to be restrictions on travel, the big coporarations increase their market share squeezing small and medium businesses, no respect for a private citizen's privacy by tracking of every movement and every transaction no matter how trivial or mundane.

Welcome to the Village.

[Bluestone59]

2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

For me out of all the delivery companies, Royal Mail have been by far the worst during covid.

Not had any trouble with them myself but talking to postie neighbour (works in next town along) RM has never been so busy in his experience.

And I did see a notice of no more Saturday deliveries (temporarily ha ha). I assume the plan is to grind down public resistance to abolishing the more onerous obligations and then flog it to DPD or the like. I can't think of any better explanation of my loathing for the Tories who only exist due to the utterly pathetic oppositions of the past 50-60 years.

That must be what politicians mean when they talk about "being in this together". They all certainly are.

[Warwick-Watcher]

12 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

Not had any trouble with them myself but talking to postie neighbour (works in next town along) RM has never been so busy in his experience.

And I did see a notice of no more Saturday deliveries (temporarily ha ha). I assume the plan is to grind down public resistance to abolishing the more onerous obligations and then flog it to DPD or the like. I can't think of any better explanation of my loathing for the Tories who only exist due to the utterly pathetic oppositions of the past 50-60 years.

That must be what politicians mean when they talk about "being in this together". They all certainly are.

I can't see the problem with a 3 times a week delivery service to homes. Businesses could stay daily. Then scrap the first and second class stamp idea - one price only; the difference is relatively small anyway (first class is 76p and second class is 65p).

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

No change is inevitable. Some are very, very likely. More than some in fact, a great number of them. And the future looks crap because of them so I wouldn't be in a hurry to label accelerating them as a good thing.

This is the point upon which you and I simply disagree on every thread we post on, and I shall spare other readers from going through that loop again.

On inevitability...well go on then yes, changes aren't truly inevitable, but you know what I mean and so does everyone else reading. Things that were almost certainly going to happen by 2025 have now happened in 2020.

[Bluestone59]

47 minutes ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

I can't see the problem with a 3 times a week delivery service to homes. Businesses could stay daily. Then scrap the first and second class stamp idea - one price only; the difference is relatively small anyway (first class is 76p and second class is 65p).

If RM is on the up and remains as busy as I was told then I don't see why you'd want or need to reduce to 3 days a week of residential deliveries, a lot of which are lucrative parcels traffic.

Not long ago we were being told it was an ailing business with an out of date model in which case your suggestions would make more sense.

The objective as ever is to charge more for less and flog it off, shedding a few jobs along the way.

Within the past year I saw an interview with a German guy who'd started his own firm, chocolates I think he was making, saying he couldn't understand this type of culture and that it's much more usual in Germany to retain the ownership of a business you've started.

Cheap shot I know to imply the Germans have all the answers as I'm sure they don't.