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About jiltedjen
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What is happening with new builds?
jiltedjen replied to 70PC's topic in House prices and the economy
In America they have square footage. I often look at Zoopla to see if anything interesting or with potential comes up. Everything priced about 50% more than it should be. Stuff that needs work, same cost as something that doesn’t. It just doesn’t look like much of a market for me. I was watching a video about a bloke in Germany who collects west German stuff, and fixes stuff from scrap yards. he often comes across beautiful tiny houses or even mansions in the most beautiful woods you could imagine abandoned. cheap as chips to buy. Imagine picking up a beautiful little summer lodge for £20k in the UK on acres of land, getting a fire place going. Real peace. nothing remotely like that anywhere in the Uk. closest thing is Scottish bothies. Which is only temporary accommodation anyway. can’t remember where but they’re as a rough sounding bloke who moved to Germany. And was recounting his life in the UK went something like this “it’s like the scales have fallen from my eyes, we had a terrible quality of life in the UK, we were mugs, it’s only when you find something better do you realise how bad it was” that comment and that video did make me wonder. although even the German YouTube was saying some of those places have ghosts, and generally a sadness about them. -
Timeless sketch. Still applies today as much as it did back then.
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Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
But that’s not been the case at all. look at % of wealth between age ranges of each generation. Boomers at my age had 30% of the wealth my generation it’s something like 2% so unless there is some massive change in short order, I will be in a very poor generation. All the wealth has been held with the older generations and ladder pulled up behind. equally my generation has bucked the trend of ‘moving to the right with age’ we just don’t have enough of a stake in society to give a toss about maintaining wealth of those that do. but wealth redistribution happens in one of two ways 1. stated policy (won’t happen) 2. High inflation eroding value of savings, acting as the wealth transfer (this has happened historically) so I would imagine point 2 happens, but it has to happen pretty drastically and in short order to have a decent effect. So I think we are stuck with inflation and previously ‘well off retirements’ is now a pipe dream for many of gen x. -
Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
The banks are hugely dependant on it, and so are a raft of others services like insurance etc. also the ‘wealth effect’ is very much real. it’s the primary method of money creation also. the value of the pound is intrinsically linked to our biggest export (housing investments) so you get a compound effect with rates going up and houses crashing, it takes the £ down with it. So rates have to go up further. it’s propper poop hits the fan stuff in regards to GBP. Not to mention the renter economy. Housing has more or less been our only engine of growth. And the finance sector is huge in the UK. we are mostly a service based economy. if that ‘wealth’ evaporates overnight, we don’t have a good ‘real economy’ behind us like Japan or Germany. it’s basically going to lead to huge wage inflation in actual productive industries and massive wage cuts in real terms in finance industry. The game is up. it’s over. we kicked the can right to the end of the road, and now facing a wall. I honestly don’t think retirements will be as good as many expect. it’s natural that there is finally a correction and a transfer away from value locked in savings, back to value of working for the productive, that’s how it worked historically. inflation was the mechanism to make it fairer between generations. -
Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
I won’t be part of a rich generation. And hopefully kids will be better off than me (can you imagine such a concept when following generations are better off than previous!!?) At the moment it’s not funny families are losing homes while boomers do three cruises a year. -
Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
Apart from housing market IS now the economy. Si it’s over for UK either way short to medium term. -
So looks like the markets didn’t like the 0.25% you might think it was priced in already. doesn’t seem that way. They were probably hoping expectations would drop. early days yet. See what the rate looks like tomorrow.
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Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
Well watching the news, at one point a chap was saying that rate rises is not the right thing to do and instead a wealth tax on older people, make it fairer. that’s something like I would say! Common sense! however it’s is what it is. Lots of very angry people on about rates, a frothing hate about ‘the tories train wreck of an economy’ lots of people saying it’s temporary. but I think the actual experts are talking about yield curves and actually people are thinking rates have not peaked yet, no-one seems to want to be pinned down saying ‘they won’t go higher’ people talking about increasing tax on the banks to ‘help home-owners’, I mean you made a deal with the devil! Im glad to see banker hate coming coming on strong. also surprised there is no organised ‘March on the Bank of England protest’ I mean personally I think rates should be higher, but there are a lot of people who will be ruined by it. You would think some actual protests would take place? perhaps it’s too embarrassing to stand outside with a ‘I’m a debt head moron and I’m f**cked’ banner? -
What is happening with new builds?
jiltedjen replied to 70PC's topic in House prices and the economy
I mean we have technology now, that you could have a 3D scan of a house, and walk through it after setting your height. All it is a drone flying through with a scanner. -
What is happening with new builds?
jiltedjen replied to 70PC's topic in House prices and the economy
Need to be able to sort by price per M2 or M3 and have a value indicator based upon ratio of price to M2 of the plot. really would highlight the bargains and the utter p*** takers. Sometimes you get 1 bed houses far more vast than 3 bed houses, but you might write them off as you didn’t spot the £ per M2 potential. Zoopla has the better search conditions as you can actually search by terms like “garage” or “drive” Would also be nice if you could set criteria to block houses from search ‘block house unless drops below X price’ so you can stop wasting time of kite-flyers often listen 3 times by 3 agents. perhaps have buyer profiles which have to be backed up my offer in principle - so sellers can have a better look at the buyers market, meaning they could see that they are hoping that 1% of buyers will choice their house, but 20% less would appeal to 50% of buyers etc. I would imagine a ‘buyers based’ estate agents would be good. have buyer profiles, etc. Have real search conditions. why is dating so much more advanced than house-hunting? it’s all just a database and a search set. it’s not complex. but I guess they want people to have to trawl through all the Sh**e houses, is part of ‘wearing buyers down’ you could even have average earnings for an area. -
Agreed. Although the way trades are going middle class will be poorer than working class! regarding the previous comment about about wages. Sometimes two incomes much better than a single larger income for tax reasons. and wages are relative to location, £60k in London is crap joke scum wages, but outside of London buys a lot and is decent. plus ages is relative. £60k for a millenial is not as useful as £60k to Gen x due to housing costs, cost of living.
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I think it’s not just the cost of premises it’s also cost of taking on risk and cost of housing. plenty of people would go into trades and set off on their own, but rents and mortgages and housing so high, that means the risk is not viable for younger people, when you could say, go be fork-lift driver and be secure. thus it’s a very very high barrier to entry. builders perhaps a little more flexible with hire station etc, but other trades do involve needing a work-shop, even making up double glazing units as a one man band takes space. so there are less and less people doing it. it’s the end of a massive cycle where degrees ‘worth’ peaked in the 90’s (not many boomers did hard jobs, so the few that did made bank), now it’s flipped, where the real money is not degree jobs, but places which require space, competition is quickly shuffling off its moral coil, and it’s not being back-filled. Pretty much any trade that requires a workshop will be making bank for at least 20 years now - if you can somehow gets your hands on a house and workshop! we already see it now - builders loaded, super rich - new money - doctors on the picket line having had a 30%-50-% drop in wages over 5 years that trend will continue. It’s a terrible time to get something life a loft done. it’s all priced for boomer spending power, and there is too much demand by older monies generations.
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I don’t disagree some professions are hard, but also flooded with applicants. Like doctors or Solisitors, so although hard to do, not rare, not that valuable. Whereas having £150k to set up a business plus say £250k for a house (so you can take on risk) with space is a high barrier to entry, and harder to do than be a doctor. the formally boomer jobs, not paid well during the boomer times, will be worth a lot for those in a position (have space an capital) to make bank. the real elite will be builders, and hand-trades that require space. They will be able to name their price as their competition literally dies off. meanwhile the conveyor belt of degrees continues fill steam ahead plus don’t forget it’s policy to bring wages down for the middle class, they realised they were upsetting too many working class people, so moved the pain to middle class. there is gold in there hills for those who have capital and space.
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Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
Positive money think a central committee should be in charge of money creation not private banks. Which is a terrible idea. prople can’t be trusted. Need a immutable public ledger which is set with money creation, not silly humans slagging money bailing mates out and robbing us all from inflation. -
Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?
jiltedjen replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
When BBC news sends out that alert, if you listen carefully you can hear all around the UK some collective anguish sounds. it’s like flashing up on your phone “your f**cked mate”