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To a great extent, I agree - after all, you are de-facto, right. But I see it as more of a harbinger of what was to come. And here we are. I won't check - I take your word for it. Well, nobody really knows, but my personal guess is that yields on the 10 year will stay in the 3 - 6% band until the next election, with possible short lived breakouts. (We can have a conversation about whether that is a meaninglessly wide range or a hopelessly narrow range.) I know Rachel and Keir get a lot of stick, but they are actually trying to remove perverse incentives and state expenditure that is not needed. Meanwhile, the BoE is actually introducing structural changes that might help to deal (to some extent) with the huge interest payments on the QE money that is sitting lodged in the BoE reserve account. I also suspect that QT is about to be quietly / structurally run down, which will somewhat reduce upwards pressure on gilt yields. Based on experience of the UK state, I doubt they have matters "in hand", but the focus and the resolve does seem to be there, if not the narrative.

Oh, praise be for London - the nation's only source of professional people - gracing us with their presence in Wales and the South West. Only, I could have sworn that before the influx you could actually get a GP's appointment or sign up with an NHS dentist, and now you can't do either for love nor money, even though the street your working class parents lived on is now entirely populated by gold plated public sector employees in those professions.

You shouldn't believe everything you hear from the orange idiot. The actual position is The average tariff imposed by the European Union on goods imported from the United States is approximately 3% to 5%, depending on the method of calculation. Trade-weighted averages, which account for the volume and value of goods traded, often place the figure closer to 3% The average tariff imposed by the United States on goods imported from the European Union is roughly 2.5% to 3.5%, depending on the calculation method. Trade-weighted averages, which factor in the volume and value of trade, typically hover around 2.5%

The Truss peak was a brief spike that was a red herring Look at the average yield across all 365 days of 2021, then 2022, then 2023, then 2024. each one is higher. 2025 looks set to be higher still. So it's reversion for now, but where will it stop?

It is true that this could be considered a Brexit win. We used to have a fairly substantial goods trade surplus with the US (£12bn in 2015) fortunately Brexit seems to have solved that problem for us as the latest figures indicate that we are now running a small deficit making us subject to the base 10% tariff. The risk we take now is that the trade talks break down. At the moment it appears we are being told to take the knee and accept a lowering of our food and safety standards, interference in our taxation and online safety policies and of course imposing no digital taxes on the US tech giants. So much for sovereignty. The morning after the vote Carney said that the BoE had spent £60bn to stop the £s free fall and to ensure the cash machines kept on working. He later dropped the base rate to 0.25% and pumped £100bn of liquidity into the economy. You would think all this cash and dropping the value of our currency by over 10% would have caused the economy to boom but for some apparently unfathomable reason it didn't. Up to 2016 we were one of those "doing very nicely" countries and then suddenly we weren't kzb seems unable to think why that could be but is sure it is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit As a reminder of how we were doing in the years running up to the vote. This is from that nest of Remainers (the Daily Mail) a couple of weeks after the vote Britain has been the fastest growing of the advanced nations in the last couple of years. More than one million jobs have been created and the jobless rate has fallen to five per cent of the workforce.

WTactualF?

"Fixed price" Or "not for sale" as it's also known

The chefs indeed command big wages. The Chinese can earn good money in their own country now. They don't need to come over here for £500 per week slaving away with the home nation booming with mega construction projects getting made up and down the country. The profit margins are not what they uses to be. The price increases of the last 5 years have not been passed on fully to consumers. There would be no demand if they did. Many will sell up and go back to China. I am sure of it.

Does he have a house there, or is it his editors ?

I think the Trump playbook is a system where the US dollar is no longer reserve currency and therefore they can no longer print money and run big deficits. Every nation on an equal footing. Therefore, balance of trade between nations with deficits settled in gold. To do this the dollar needs to be devalued so not only the national debt problem gets solved but also the US can export products due to a weaker dollar favouring US manufacturing companies. You will also note gold has been made exempts from the tariffs because it will flow in and out of the US depending on the trade flow. DOGE is a big part of the picture because in this new system the US government obviously cannot continue on its current path of too many state workers sucking off the tit. Labour will need to flow into manufacturing etc. Not only is it an ambitious playbook but it is also a necessary one. Without an immediate about turn the USA collapses due to the mammoth national debt.

The Dog who looks more like Richard Branson than he does.

4% to 5% yields are probably a "safe" zone and ideal equilibrium for the establishment whereby the highly indebted economy can continue to probably stumble on without breaking something. However, they will go over 6% sooner rather than later. I would be surprised if they don't go over 6% by 2030. The question is what will the government/BOE do when they do go over 6%? This reverse is only temporary. We are in a new cycle of higher interest rates.

It's not going to be easy to change the national mindset. But it needs to be changed because the economy will get much worse if house prices stay this high. Small businesses are going to throw in the towel with so many people spending their wages on housing. No income for restaurants or pubs etc. And with council tax, water and electricity all going up in 2025 any hope of growth will be lost even on the NPCs. And when the market finally figures out the UK will never grow the GBP will be sold off and yields will go very high. Then it's game over. Let's voluntarily choose the sensible option now before the market does it for us. That way we can avoid the most brutal solution to our problems.

That is insane! The country is going down the tubes fast. What industry is that in?

ONS allowed ideology to trump reality: After an investigation by the statistics watchdog, this will no longer be treated as an official statistic, but will be deemed “experimental”. It is the first time this has happened to census data since the Office for Statistics Regulation was formed before the 2011 census. The ONS had claimed the data would be useful to “aid allocation for resources and policy development”. Concern about the figures emerged when the census appeared to show that the east London borough of Tower Hamlets had the highest proportion of trans people, at one in 100 – more than in Brighton, long recognised as a popular place for LGBTQ+ people to live. The figures are used by policymakers to better understand their populations’ needs for services. For example, Tower Hamlets council issued a “state of the borough” report based on the now questionable data telling residents that 2,643 people in the borough aged over 16 identified as trans men, trans women, non-binary and other gender identities. After an investigation by the OSR, the ONS has now conceded that “some respondents may not have interpreted the question as intended, notably people with lower English language skills in some communities”. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/sep/12/official-estimate-trans-population-england-wales-ons https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-review-of-data-statistics-and-research-on-sex-and-gender/review-of-data-statistics-and-research-on-sex-and-gender-executive-summary

I noted: "They are never going to go below £250,000,” says Peett." Hmm..

"Prices have plunged, falling by 8.9pc in Pembrokeshire in the year to December 2024" But.... ‘Houses are standing empty’ That's because no one can afford to buy them, they're still 50% too high.

Looks about 10

@HousePriceMania 1m @Telegraph and this moronic little prick @pietersnep think the price of shelter falling is a bad thing "It has succeeded – at least in the first aspect: many are selling up, pushing house prices down and crashing the local property market. But on the second, the jury is out."

Yeah - this analysis is total madness, but then so is the situation We screwed ourselves by raised trade barriers with the EU. Now Trump is raising trade barriers with the RoW. Its all like some bizarre nervous breakdown spooling out from 2016. I can sort of see nominally why Brexiters are trying to take this as a 'win', when actually we really should now stop d1cking around and look at rejoining the SM and working our way closer to the EU Its like we got mentally ill and chopped off our right arm. Then an acquaintance got a similar mental illness and went around stabbing everybody in the arm, but stabbed us a bit less in the left arm on account of our missing right arm. We then said see how clever it was to chop off our right arm! ? !" 🤪

You have nothing to worry about 🤣

Sounds like a fiddle.

Only in that, if you own one outright you might have some where to live. A sitting duck for council tax rises. And they'll come for your sons to go fight for them, your not moving to avoid that one. If you're in debt though, you're f*****. If you are in levered debt, you are totally and utterly f******. This notion that houses are investments is abhorrent, it's a narrative that has got to end. A house is a liability.

Yep. You still hear people complaining on Facebook about "Down From London" types coming to the south coast, putting a strain on services and forcing up prices. Who do they think are filling the professional roles like doctors, dentists and teachers? Who's employing local builders to renovate all those properties? And who's creating the demand that's helping to keep bars, cafes and restaurants busy most of the year (instead of the previous 3 month season)?

That makes a big assumption that the factories and assembly plants of the future will employ "western workers". Far more likely that robots/drones etc will do the physical work. Other work can be done online for pennies per hour by less fortunate folk elsewhere.