desiringonlychild
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What do you want from a house price crash?
desiringonlychild replied to Orb's topic in House prices and the economy
I just want to be able to upgrade to a larger flat and pay £500k in my area. So I want prices to go down 20%.... but it probably would only go down 10-15% as prices for flats have stagnated overall since 2016 (i did take some advantage when buying in 2019). -
my husband is a third generation londoner and in my view it has never been that straightforward. Husband's dad lived with his parents before buying his 1 bed flat in north london when he got married. Couldn't afford to upgrade to a house so got money from the in laws to help. similarly we lived with family for 3 years before buying our flat (1930s, remarkably similar to the flat purchased by family friends of ours in the 1990s- accountant and solicitor). And i think for my husband's grandfather generation, they probably did live in social housing in the early years which enabled them to save up and buy a house in London.
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Buying doesn't necessarily need to be that either.. I make offers on properties (to buy) and if they reject it, I move on. I made at least 5 offers on different properties when buying. After 8 months of making bids, my bid on 1 property eventually got accepted and also in that process, my budget eventually adjusted to the reality of that time (2019) and the prices overall also fell to include more attractive areas that were within my budget (and I increased my budget as a result).
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Renting is different from buying in a sense. Someone who is buying a property is usually renting, living in their own property or with family..they can choose not to buy that particular property at that time and wait a few months...many people who view properties to buy are not super serious. However when renters view a property, they usually need somewhere new to live fairly quickly in the short term. Having competition is not good. It's like the job market- people apply to many jobs but if every job you apply to has 1000 applicants that indicates a tough job market unless you are an above average candidate. Given that the average rent outside London is £1200 (my mortgage cost in 2019 when my husband and I only earn £75k combined in our first proper jobs), it stands to reason that a desirable renter who can be assured of being able to stand a chance of securing an average property would be someone with a household income of 6 figures. How many renters outside London fit that description....
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I don't know how so few people pay inheritance tax when many houses in London/SE are over £1 million and there are many divorced boomers (threshold if you are a single is £500k). Don't know if I am overestimating inheritance liability but my mother in law owns a 3 bed terraced house in zone 3 north London..it is worth £600k and I don't think that is overhyped when many flats in north London are around that price range and this is a house with garden, albeit very run down. It is also a 5 minute walk drom a university and is prime student let hmo type of property (5 rooms that can be used as bedrooms due to two reception rooms plus separate dining room). So this would attract inheritance tax of £40k as my mother in law is divorced. Fine by me but her youngest lives with her and has no hope of ever buying anything or even living independently (special case). So doesn't that mean my husband and I have to pay £40k in inheritance tax so that his sister can continue to live in the house that she was born in? We could sell it and buy her another place to live in but the inheritance tax needs to be paid before the house is sold. It is possible my mother in law would need care and this would become a non problem though.
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Where are the Gen Z posts?
desiringonlychild replied to jiltedjen's topic in House prices and the economy
I am 31 so on the younger end. Yes I am more left wing than most of the posters but I believe in social housing Singapore style (for people on a wide range of incomes). I also own my flat but that was mainly due to me marrying a born and bred Londoner who was able to live at home while working. A lot of Gen Z are more likely to be from second generation immigrant backgrounds so could be turned off by the anti immigrant rhetoric. I am an immigrant myself and don't comment on a lot of threads for that reason. But I probably take it less personally myself as I never moved here for economic reasons, mainly for marriage and my husband doesn't consume more housing just because I am there given we live in a flat. When we took out our mortgage, they didn't even count a lot of my income due to my visa at that time, so basically the flat was mostly purchased due to his earning power. -
The London housing market is a scam
desiringonlychild replied to NoHPCinTheUK's topic in House prices and the economy
There are 15 million Jews in the world, 6.9 million of them live in Israel. For the mizrahi (Jewish people who originally lived in Arab countries and were expelled after the yom Kippur war) and the Russians, they have nowhere else to go. Mizrahi form 50% of Israeli Jews today. Israel was founded as a country as Jews were persecuted and aspired to have a place they could call home. But of course having a place where you are accepted for being Jewish isn't good enough if the economic conditions are unfavourable. I wasn't born Jewish but I can move to Israel because I converted and also married a Jewish guy so qualify on both counts. But I never would because I can see the lives of my family members who have moved there and I do not envy them. Indeed 75% of western immigrants to Israel leave within the first five years due to high rent, low wages and cultural differences. The welfare payments are a sticking plaster. My husband's sisters made aliyah on a program which offered them free housing and found them internships. They got money for the first few years. Food is at least 30% more expensive there and so is most things, wages are lower and the rent? Most expats who don't speak Hebrew fluently tend to congregate in central Israel where it's easily 2000 USD per month for a very basic apartment. Like I said previously, a 2 bed flat in Bat yam, the poorest city in central Israel (based on an article I read) is the same price as my zone 3 north London flat, despite average wages being half of London. My husband's sister lives there and her rent is 50% more than my mortgage. I remember watching an interview and this professor said a good salary in Israel was XXXX shekels and it can be earned in tech. I converted it and it turned out to be £60k. Sorry I am a Londoner and most professional Londoners wouldn't call that a good salary, let alone people who work in tech. This is why many people (who weren't born there and have the money) leave, even the starry eyed idealists, if they have an American, UK or European passport. No one would move there for the welfare because it runs out and then the welfare system is much worse than what we have in the UK unless you are religious -
The London housing market is a scam
desiringonlychild replied to NoHPCinTheUK's topic in House prices and the economy
A growing percentage of people live in the settlements, it is cheaper but the ones that you can actually live in as a regular person aren't that cheap. The Dee family (the British family where mum and daughters got shot) lived in one near Jerusalem which resembles an LA suburb with shops and amenities. The ones that the hardened settlers live in, you need to be prepared to carry a gun wherever you go, plus you have to contend with the other crazies. And the risk that your home would get demolished at some point. The state is actually the biggest landowner but they are not building enough homes https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-how-many-salaries-needed-to-buy-a-home-in-israel-1001445541 The real reason why this is allowed to persist is the same reason as here. Israelis like the high housing prices. It makes them feel 'rich'. They have similar home ownership rates to the UK. Parents give money to kids to buy homes and Israelis tend to live with family for longer (national service and a more traditional culture). This enables them to save up the 30% deposits . -
The London housing market is a scam
desiringonlychild replied to NoHPCinTheUK's topic in House prices and the economy
And in Israel it's 27 times local incomes. It's not sustainable in most major cities in developed countries. -
The London housing market is a scam
desiringonlychild replied to NoHPCinTheUK's topic in House prices and the economy
I have worked out that my London flat costs the same as a similar sized flat in Bat Yam (poorest city in central Israel though it is admittedly very well connected to Tel aviv by light rail now). My husband's sisters live there hence my interest. Given Israeli house prices are growing 8% per year, it would be more expensive by next year. Israeli wages are below UK wages let alone London ones. It is worse affordability wise in USA, Canada, Australia as well and it's our capital.. even Singapore if you exclude the citizen only government housing. You can only compare with other capital cities. -
My generation expect the same houses as our parents had. That is the problem..completely different times and our parents were not taking on this kind of debt to service it. It's not so much about the perceived value of the housing, we could argue all day long on what price is too high (and it's region dependent). What is the most dangerous is young people buying the 4 bed house in a commuter town, having to commute to London at least 3 times a week and two cars..there is virtually no slag in that budget - the 4 bed house is not cheaper than a modest residence in London (in fact it's often more expensive) and you can't give up the car and often the commute. And it's all because their parents had the 4 bed house at their age....
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For me a 2 bed house with similar square footage is £200k more in my area. I think the money I save from not borrowing an extra £200k can go a long way to pay service charges! But that's just my view. In London, what would be a good midway point is share of freehold maisonette and talk to the only other freeholder. If the person is sane, it could be a good deal. Usually have no service charges and you arrange repairs yourself. My husband despises conversions but I don't mind them.