Northern Ireland House Prices up 14% YoY

[JoeDavola]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57648935

[2buyornot2buy]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57648935

This is what happens when you removed SDLT. People borrow thousands more to save hundreds.

[JoeDavola]

12 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

This is what happens when you removed SDLT. People borrow thousands more to save hundreds.

I'm still quite shocked at how spectacularly wrong I was when I assumed that the lockdown of the economy would put a brake on HPI or might even cause a drop in house prices.

Anedotally, most of my peers bought 5-8 years ago and none of them have moved from their first house and have no plans on moving they think the market is insane and don't want to take on an extra 100K debt as they approach 40 for a little bit of extra room.

This trend may well continue given the smaller number of transactions actually happening, but if it does you've got a housing market that fewer and fewer of the population can actually buy into. And as I mentioned above the idea of a housing 'ladder' is now gone.

[2buyornot2buy]

59 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm still quite shocked at how spectacularly wrong I was when I assumed that the lockdown of the economy would put a brake on HPI or might even cause a drop in house prices.

Anedotally, most of my peers bought 5-8 years ago and none of them have moved from their first house and have no plans on moving they think the market is insane and don't want to take on an extra 100K debt as they approach 40 for a little bit of extra room.

This trend may well continue given the smaller number of transactions actually happening, but if it does you've got a housing market that fewer and fewer of the population can actually buy into. And as I mentioned above the idea of a housing 'ladder' is now gone.

Well I've cashed out so to speak. Sold up a few months ago in BT9. I don't want to say too much but it wasn't a traditional sale. I'll see what happens over the next 12-18 months before we decided what to do next. Just about doubled our money since we bought about 8 years ago. We've been fortunate enough in that the inlaws inherited a house that they don't need, so we've moved in while we decide what to do. It's a big house, outside the city. It needs some work but covid has made us reassess what we want from life.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Well I've cashed out so to speak. Sold up a few months ago in BT9. I don't want to say too much but it wasn't a traditional sale. I'll see what happens over the next 12-18 months before we decided what to do next. Just about doubled our money since we bought about 8 years ago. We've been fortunate enough in that the inlaws inherited a house that they don't need, so we've moved in while we decide what to do. It's a big house, outside the city. It needs some work but covid has made us reassess what we want from life.

Oh my. Well done you.

Doubling your money in 8 years. You've played it well.

The sums of money that are being made and lost here based on when you happened to buy a house are life changing i.e. being able to retire at 50 vs working till you die.

I'm not going to retire young, but I also don't want to slave 40-60 hours a week so i won't be buying into this market any more than I need to. It's getting to the point where maxxing out my S&S ISA every year and ending up a renter with 300K+ in shares in a tax free wrapper might actually be a wiser thing than buying a house in Belfast.

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm not going to retire young, but I also don't want to slave 40-60 hours a week so i won't be buying into this market any more than I need to.

To clarify I mean I have a low stress low hours enjoyable job that feels like semi-retirement compared to the stress I've experienced in the past, and I don't want to feel I need to go back to the high-stress long hours life just to pay for a roof over my head.

[2buyornot2buy]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Oh my. Well done you.

Doubling your money in 8 years. You've played it well.

The sums of money that are being made and lost here based on when you happened to buy a house are life changing i.e. being able to retire at 50 vs working till you die.

I'm not going to retire young, but I also don't want to slave 40-60 hours a week so i won't be buying into this market any more than I need to. It's getting to the point where maxxing out my S&S ISA every year and ending up a renter with 300K+ in shares in a tax free wrapper might actually be a wiser thing than buying a house in Belfast.

I personally think the people who bought it are absolute mugs. But then what do I know. I would never have convinced the OH to do it if it wasn't for covid. Plus the fact we had a mortgage free house to move to.

Some fantastic stock opportunities out there at the minute. BP have been a absolutely brilliant buy for me.

You should really read up on the FIRE movement. Get to the stage where you can semi/fully retire. If there's one thing this whole covid situation should have taught the world is that you can't buy time.

[Data Dave]

Nationwide source with report too if anyone wants it: https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/headlines

[nigooner]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm still quite shocked at how spectacularly wrong I was when I assumed that the lockdown of the economy would put a brake on HPI or might even cause a drop in house prices.

Anedotally, most of my peers bought 5-8 years ago and none of them have moved from their first house and have no plans on moving they think the market is insane and don't want to take on an extra 100K debt as they approach 40 for a little bit of extra room.

This trend may well continue given the smaller number of transactions actually happening, but if it does you've got a housing market that fewer and fewer of the population can actually buy into. And as I mentioned above the idea of a housing 'ladder' is now gone.

Same here, got it all wrong. Although when I was at my most pessimistic there was no furlough, SEISS, bounceback loans or CBILS- the economy would have totally collapsed without those. Instead, the government have done all they can to keep it going and then added fuel to the fire with SDLT holidays.

Although I still get the sense that most people out there are oblivious and the world is one great magical place where the economy will never retract. Bonkers, considering furlough hasn’t even ended yet.

I’m still convinced the NI market is in total bubble territory though, I wouldn’t be buying a new house myself at this moment in time. Although god knows what level of boom will come here if the DUP don’t succeed in their attempts at scuppering NI’s unique position of being in two trading markets at the same time!

[Uchimata]

6 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

You should really read up on the FIRE movement. Get to the stage where you can semi/fully retire. If there's one thing this whole covid situation should have taught the world is that you can't buy time.

I discovered Dave Ramsey over here a year and a half ago, debt free and investing early (compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world) is the way to go. Some of his callers have very American specific issues like student loans, being cleaned out by the ex-wife and investing in real estate (it makes sense here due to federal tax breaks).... but his baby steps/focus on paying off debt could change your life.

[Data Dave]

How do you read this?

....First timers get fingers burned so havent bought anything as 'expensive' since '08?

[2buyornot2buy]

32 minutes ago, Uchimata said:

I discovered Dave Ramsey over here a year and a half ago, debt free and investing early (compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world) is the way to go. Some of his callers have very American specific issues like student loans, being cleaned out by the ex-wife and investing in real estate (it makes sense here due to federal tax breaks).... but his baby steps/focus on paying off debt could change your life.

I'm familiar with baby steps. It's all about investing early. If you get employer matching on pension contributions it's an absolute no brainer.

[2buyornot2buy]

3 minutes ago, Data Dave said:

How do you read this?

....First timers get fingers burned so havent bought anything as 'expensive' since '08?

I can't explain it.

[Data Dave]

15 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I can't explain it.

Makes a bit more sense now, FTB'ers just buying slightly less expensive props than F.O.O's

[Data Dave]

Prices YTD in NI up from £149,382 [Q4 2020] to £163,576 [Q2 2021] or £14,194 in cash terms.

Prices since Covid started [start of 2020] prices up £22,561

At 4.25X earnings multiple [for a mortgage] = £5,308 [22,561/4.25].

Meaning to afford the 'same' property now versus pre Covid, you now need to earn an extra £5,308. [not adjusted for inflation]

[BelfastVI]

On 29/06/2021 at 10:42, 2buyornot2buy said:

This is what happens when you removed SDLT. People borrow thousands more to save hundreds.

SDLT was free up to £125k and was 2% on anything over that to £250k. with the average NI house sale of £150k the normal SDLT payment would be £3k. Removal of this, at best should only increase prices by that £3k or 2%.

I think when you get into very expensive houses this would become a factor. we are booking houses today that will complete long after this SDLT holiday is over and it is not a factor.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

SDLT was free up to £125k and was 2% on anything over that to £250k. with the average NI house sale of £150k the normal SDLT payment would be £3k. Removal of this, at best should only increase prices by that £3k or 2%.

I think when you get into very expensive houses this would become a factor. we are booking houses today that will complete long after this SDLT holiday is over and it is not a factor.

You can't borrow SDLT.

[coypondboy]

Do you think the new DUP leader Donaldson who hails from that hot bed of unionism in Kilkeel will not allow irish speaking adoption and allow Sinn Fein to bring down Stormont. Big gamble if elections then held and local population fed up with ongoing politics around religeon all vote alliance party and put a spanner in the works. Also if vote for irish unification in next 5 yrs what affect will it have on house prices as I remeber the bust of 2007 prices tripling then halving with many youngsters now in 30/40's and still in negative equity 14 yrs on.

[Ausdave]

I tend to stay out of politics when trying to predict anything and think it’s a good mantra for the forum.

as far as predictions go, they are just that, I couldn’t have predicted the present rise in a month of sundays.

[gruffydd]

On 29/06/2021 at 10:59, JoeDavola said:

I'm still quite shocked at how spectacularly wrong I was when I assumed that the lockdown of the economy would put a brake on HPI or might even cause a drop in house prices.

Anedotally, most of my peers bought 5-8 years ago and none of them have moved from their first house and have no plans on moving they think the market is insane and don't want to take on an extra 100K debt as they approach 40 for a little bit of extra room.

This trend may well continue given the smaller number of transactions actually happening, but if it does you've got a housing market that fewer and fewer of the population can actually buy into. And as I mentioned above the idea of a housing 'ladder' is now gone.

Government intervention simply changed the trajectory... now they're out of powder it'll be interesting to see what happens next.

"At another level, there is a deeper, more philosophical debate waging. It centres on the core inconsistency embedded in what we might call the “promise of property”. The inconsistency is the promise that property will make you wealthy once you own it and sell it on, allied with the promise that the first-time buyer can buy an affordable house. You can only have both of these aspirations for a number of generations because eventually, the society runs out of buyers. We are here now. If we promise homeowners the option to sell on eventually, cashing in at much higher prices than they originally bought the property for, then we need to create a buying class with limitless income. Societies that get lucky economically can probably get away with this, in a fast-growing economy, for at most two generations, then we run out of buyers rich enough to play the game."

The Ponzi scheme is about to unwind. http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/we-are-at-the-end-of-a-slow-moving-housing-ponzi-scheme/

[gruffydd]

On 01/07/2021 at 07:59, Ausdave said:

I tend to stay out of politics when trying to predict anything and think it’s a good mantra for the forum.

as far as predictions go, they are just that, I couldn’t have predicted the present rise in a month of sundays.

The current rise was caused by politicians... politics, for goodness sake.

[BelfastVI]

On 04/07/2021 at 00:04, gruffydd said:

Government intervention simply changed the trajectory... now they're out of powder it'll be interesting to see what happens next.

"At another level, there is a deeper, more philosophical debate waging. It centres on the core inconsistency embedded in what we might call the “promise of property”. The inconsistency is the promise that property will make you wealthy once you own it and sell it on, allied with the promise that the first-time buyer can buy an affordable house. You can only have both of these aspirations for a number of generations because eventually, the society runs out of buyers. We are here now. If we promise homeowners the option to sell on eventually, cashing in at much higher prices than they originally bought the property for, then we need to create a buying class with limitless income. Societies that get lucky economically can probably get away with this, in a fast-growing economy, for at most two generations, then we run out of buyers rich enough to play the game."

The Ponzi scheme is about to unwind. http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/we-are-at-the-end-of-a-slow-moving-housing-ponzi-scheme/

I am a big fan of McWilliams but he is talking about house prices in Dublin which are on a different planet They have the surrounding areas busy de-zoning land. what could possibly go wrong.

Dublin has a major housing crisis. Rents are falling with people being able to work from home but to rent a bedroom in a house was €2,400 per month and multi-national funds, who had been given major tax breaks, are buying up all the newbuild in the city.

The average price in Dublin is €380,000 (£325,000), Belfast is £142,000 (43% of Dublin Prices).

[BelfastVI]

On 04/07/2021 at 00:05, gruffydd said:

The current rise was caused by politicians... politics, for goodness sake.

The only impact local politicians have had on house prices in NI is their continuous practice limiting supply via no area plans and the slowest planning system in these islands. At a national level the only decision to have any impact in the Covit era was the STAMP holiday which had little impact here as it was free up to £125k in any event.

[JoeDavola]

On 04/07/2021 at 00:04, gruffydd said:

for at most two generations, then we run out of buyers rich enough to play the game."

Yes someone I know has referred to the mid-upper end of the housing market as an 'equity swapping' market - i.e. people basically swapping houses with each other.

[JoeDavola]

Another price level crossed...the £400K semi:

https://www.propertypal.com/11-st-johns-park-rosetta-belfast/703393