JoeDavola

Programming salaries basically stayed static for 15 years. There has been a boom the last 5 years. But £60K is not 'low' for a programmer in Belfast IMO. My peers have been blown away that in the last couple of years Senior Engineers seem to be able to command £70K with the right skills, but this is a very recent occurance, £70K being the new £50K kind of thing. I know my pay is apalling but it's partly my own fault for not making the right career moves and not keeping my skills up to date. I've been offered contract work that would have been £500 a day in the niche area I'm in so if I wanted to chase the money that would be the best way to do it. I feel like we're in an IT jobs boom at the moment where basically anyone can get a job and whilst I don't expect it to completely collapse, I think it could wind back a bit and some sanity could return to the market. When you say 'multiples of £60K', is this as permie staff? Do you mean £120K? £180K? I didn't think there was much software work in the UK that pays that amount.

I think another big question is whether this IT jobs boom will last forever. Maybe it will I dunno but there's people throwing around wages of £60-£80K+ on Reddit NI very casually as if anyone can just do a one year conversion to IT at QUB and be on that money within 5 years. Maybe they can I but I've been in IT long enough to remember job downturns, periods where you couldn't get an IT job here for love nor money. But it could well be different this time, maybe Belfast is the new Silicon Valley of Europe or something. I also get the Civil Service and Belfast City Coucil job emails and the wages they pay certainly don't support todays house prices especially if mortgage rates end up at 5% long term.

I do wonder how some of these EA's are staying in business given the low transaction volumes - they must be making their money from management of lettings? So much of what's coming on the market is absolute garbage but I can see the housing market here stumbling along in this kind of limbo for years to be honest. I think you're right winter of this year will be dead; nothing but probates most of which are renovation projects that they're still looking a quarter million for.

How are they going to see their payments quadruple exactly? These must be folk on IO mortgages?

Well he would say that, wouldn't he, cause he's looking to buy your house off you at a massive discount. He's not doing this out of the goodness of his heart.

My goodness - I'm assuming that's for at least 3 kids??

Now that's an excellent point. Need two wages to pay the mortgage but both parents working means childcare costs which are mental. Being single without kids I never think of stuff like that. The sums just dont add up do they?

(Sorry, wrote 'rent', meant 'mortgage' - wish I could edit posts...)

To be fair if IR stay the same, there's plenty of couples can afford that; assuming one wage mostly goes to pay the rent. The problem is if IR's rise, or if there's anything resembling a recession with job losses. Plus most people buying that are gonna have 2 or 3 kids, and the cost of looking after the little 'un's is inflating with everything else. Anyone taking out a £300K+ mortgage at the moment needs their head seen to IMO.

Agree totally with this; I just have this gut feeling that the lack of supply might continue for years. Or rather lack of supply of houses that are suitable for a family and don't need 50K+ spent renovating them. I think rising cost of food and energy are making it less likely for people to want to move, and that's only gonna get worse over the next couple of years IMO. What would need to change to stop the limbo that the housing market is currently in? It seems to me like nobody's bothered with moving; I think you'd need 5-10 years of major wage inflation to inflate away the debt to get people thinking about moving again.

I mean take this; it's not even that big a house, almost half a million: https://www.propertypal.com/36-downshire-road-belfast/763544/photo-26

And my pont is - I cannot edit posts hence the numerous replies - that £350K house isn't worth the extra £150K to me over a £200K 3 bed semi. I do realize that £150K isn't a lot of money these days however.

I'd add that I'd be happy to stretch to a £300K house, but £300K no longer gets you anything that is in any way a significant step above the bog standard small 3 bed semi. For example at one point in the last decade it would have been within the realms of possibility for me to afford something like this; but it's obviously completely out of the question at todays prices: https://www.propertypal.com/12-edgcumbe-view-belmont-belfast/762914

Yeah, I was never career oriented so I earn a very modest wage and have to make sure I don't buy something that will end up costing too much to buy/maintain on one wage. I love renting this flat but I don't want to buy a flat as they're overpriced and don't want to be beholden to ever soaring building maintenance costs. Plus the particular model of flat I rent which is perfect for me has just never come up for sale. Went for a second viewing of a semi today and the bidding is up another 3 grand from the weekend with more people interested; probably because there's so little in the market. I actually wonder if the EA's are having problems paying their bills with such low volumes, maybe they get a ton of money from the rental properies they manage. Yes £200K seems to be the entry point now for a 2.5/3 bed semi in much of the country - I guess when you compare it to the 'bubble peak' of 07 you need to take inflation into account - so according to an inflation calculator £197K in today's money is the equivalent of £145K in 2007 money, so we're some way off the peak (though I still think things are too expensive especially as I don't see energy/fuel prices dropping). I specifically remember the semi my folks lived in that they'd bought in 1998 for £80K was worth £325K at the peak of the 2007 madness....which is £436K in today's money apparently; things obviously haven't gotten that bad yet but they still feel very very expensive, essentially because wages in general have trailed behind inflation since then.

There are a lot of older people with a lot of money in the bank, talking hundreds of thousands of savings and reduancy paments and inheritence etc...all looking for a home. And then the prices are further inflated by English selling prices being used to fund NI purchases. The other thing to consider is that there has been a tech jobs boom and there are people earning far higher wages than they would have done 5 years ago for the same jobs. A couple in tech who are say 30 but are ambitious and have made the right job moves could well be bringing in £120-140K between them and the amount of lending that gets you.