ravedave Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Possibly - given that Q1 was the lowest index on record. Although Q2 has returned only 1 +ve index since 2007. I'm still hoping for a negative value though - a work colleague just bought a place reduced from £220k to £170k which they got accepted at £150k. Not sure what house number it was, but a quick scan on LPS would indicate it is at least 11% below DCV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is it out tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Duh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Duh Date of release given at this link http://www.nisra.gov.uk/HousePriceIndex/hpi.html Interesting presentation. Slide 31 - terrace houses 20% below 2005, detached at 2005. http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/presentation_on_northern_ireland_residential_property_price_index_-_23_may_2012.pptx Watch out for a Bel Tel no show tomorrow again. With prices falling at 7% per quarter and 13% per annum from the last report I can see nothing to halt this trend. At the very least they don't try to spin this one, unlike the repetitive and increasingly irritating UUJ/EA sample. This is a different animal altogether. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 I missed the date on your other post shoto. Wait is the UU one out tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 I missed the date on your other post shoto. Wait is the UU one out tomorrow? UU seems to vary. Last year was 5 August. It just seems to appear as and when they get their fingers out. Personally I'm surprised they are continuing with it and that NIHE are still contributing to it. DSD are over NIHE, and they have quoted RPPI in their reports or surveys which you posted earlier so there's costly duplication of scarce taxpayers resources for involvement in an inferior report. Which one do you think would be used for Govt policy making? If UUJ do continue and release soon, they may have the wit not to issue on the same day or close to RPPI, especially if they have some "good" news about reaching the bottom or some sh*te. I'm expecting the action to move to the middle market (closing the gap with the bottom) which will keep falls healthy for many months to come yet and more repos to come from the mid market also - I'm starting to see this already. Reality has gone mainstream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 21, 2012 Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ramsey is tweeting it is out at 9.30am Ramseconomics @Ramseconomics Next instalment of N.Ireland's house price story tomorrow 0930hrs (Q2 house price survey) 53% fall so far to Q1 https://twitter.com/ramseconomics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2012 I also follow monetary intelligence on the old tweeterspace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 So were are still seeing 11% year on year falls. Great to see. More bear food please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can someone please tell me how developers and EA are surviving transaction levels 25% of peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravedave Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 What version of Word is this doc in? I can't get it to open for me at work Nice to see a 3% drop in the busy period for house sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcf Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Sales volumes have decreased by over 5% from Q1 to Q2 in 2012 which is the first time this has happened in the history of the figures provided in the report (since 2005) - even through the peak and crash...! I expected that with with all the auction activity (and soundbites in the media on volumes) that sales volumes would be up - anyone have insight? Is there likely to be Q2 sales not yet included in the report? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravedave Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Use this link for those experiencing opening the Word doc version: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q2_2012.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Anyone care to gess what happened in 2009? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Another excellent and detailed report. Q1 to Q2 drop in NI of 3% (I expected more with all the repo's) Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's) Volume in first 6 months of this year up 20% on same period as last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Anyone care to gess what happened in 2009? Recoverth, or however Mr Brown pronounced it. I see prices in the US seem to be bouncing back well over this last six months or so. You would almost think it was an election year there too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Another excellent and detailed report. Q1 to Q2 drop in NI of 3% (I expected more with all the repo's) Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's) Volume in first 6 months of this year up 20% on same period as last year. It really is great to see 11% drops in the past 12 months. No point jumping in when we are see these crash level drops. 7% below Q1 2005 and still dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravedave Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 (edited) Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's) I did notice that and was slightly disappointed as this is the area in which I'm looking. Hopefully, the overall negativity will put some downward pressure on this particular stat, although I would not be confident of it. Next quarter will hopefully show a negative probably as it will be into the slow months for property sales. Edited August 22, 2012 by ravedave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bergy100 Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 I did notice that and was slightly disappointed as this is the area in which I'm looking. Hopefully, the overall negativity will put some downward pressure on this particular stat, although I would not be confident of it. Next quarter will show a negative probably as it will be into the slow months for property sales. If it's the Newtownabbey area you are looking at I wonder what effect price props such as the Momentum Packages are having. This package offers a 100% deposit; attractive fixed rates and protection against falling house prices and it seems properties offered under this package, in the Aylesbury development in particular, are selling reasonably well at £139K. This has the knock on effect of distorting the re-sale market - owners convinced their property is worth more than the 3 bed semi new builds. They also appear to be being used as comparables by EA's - who of course do not mention the Momentum Package as well. I'm also finding there are very few houses on the market in the N'abbey area that could be described as "step up" houses in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 So the average house price in Northern Ireland has fallen £12,000 in the last year and the average yearly rent is £6,000? So the average person would save more than £6,000 a year by continuing to rent. No mortgage interest payments and rents usually include rates, insurance and maintanence. So it is still not the best time to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 A 7% drop in the past 6 months (3 with stamp duty subsidy - spring bounce etc) is good enough for me. Looking forward to the middle market and all geographic areas coming to the party properly, cuts to kick in, and other banks to follow the lead of the Northern and Santander with SVRs approaching 5% - in a very short timeframe. As an aside, I believe NISRA are looking at identifying auction/repo sales within the figures with a view to publishing numbers/percentages which would tell a tale in respect of overall sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Bel tel reports (without comment facility). They've obviously had a rethink. Straight press release cut'n'paste job but welcome nonetheless. House prices halved in five years http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/house-prices-halved-in-five-years-16201071.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 22, 2012 Report Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can someone please tell me how developers and EA are surviving transaction levels 25% of peak. Ramseconomics @Ramseconomics Value of NI property transactions (sales price x transactions) down 82% from peak (4Qtrs to Q2 07) v 4Qtrs to Q2 12. £7bn > £1.25bn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2012 Comments are enabled on the beltel report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 25, 2012 Report Share Posted August 25, 2012 Another excellent and detailed report. Q1 to Q2 drop in NI of 3% (I expected more with all the repo's) Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's) Volume in first 6 months of this year up 20% on same period as last year. Table 4 Detached -4% QonQ Semi detached -6% QonQ Terrace +3% QonQ apartments -7% QonQ Mid market coming to the party. 20% more sales (how many at auction?) = 12% drop. Long may it last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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