The job market is collapsing before our very eyes!

[Tony_Teacake]

1 hour ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

20k is 12% increase?

So you were on 160k a year? And now on 180k per year.

Your income is so high it is - literally - off the charts?

Well, you have to pay for all the emojis somehow, I guess.

And he bought a flat in a deprived area.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/66328864/

[Social Justice League]

Most jobs in 2024 are non jobs. Just a waste of time, so most people/slaves are better off on the dole, or working in a voluntary sector that actually adds value to society.

Earning worthless fiat for a zombie company that should have bit the dust f4cking decades ago........is a waste of a life.

[VancouverGuy]

41 minutes ago, deerohdeer1 said:

As much as there is some hyperbole on this thread I wouldn't describe 10,000,000 18-64 that are economically inactive as 'full employment' buddy.

Q4 last year the UK unemployment rate was 4.2% - anything less than 5% is what economists refer to as "full employment".

Anyone who wants a job can get one currently.

[Insane]

3 minutes ago, VancouverGuy said:

Q4 last year the UK unemployment rate was 4.2% - anything less than 5% is what economists refer to as "full employment".

Anyone who wants a job can get one currently.

I wonder how those figures would alter if we did not have people working 16 hours a week and having their pay made up with Tax Credits? We currently have armies of people job sharing. If Tax Credits were scrapped and one job sharer was forced to do the job full time it would free up the second person sharing the job , they would then need to find a full time job. The figures would change.

There are also many on the sick who are not counted as unemployed, huge amounts of people who have private pensions who have not reached state pension age but given up working or looking for work.

The employment rate is not as rosy as it looks.

[TheChangeIsCast]

4 hours ago, burk said:

Met a mate for pint beginning of the week who's a site manager, he reckons construction is done at present, site he's on is finishing up end of this month, the other two sites that were to come out the ground this year are on hold. Not looking good.....

#stewysachatboticlaimmyfivepounds

What sector is he in? Construction is a very broad sector, with various unrelated sub-sectors. House and commercial building is on it's arse, which isn't a surprise, but that's only a very small sub-sector of the 'construction industry'. Nuclear, defence, utilities, and rail are all still very busy. Nuclear and energy is particular have gone nuts, and there are wide spread and pretty severe staff shortages with lots of big projects kicking off. Salaries and rates getting pushed higher as projects compete for skills, in 16 years I've never seen so much competition for people.

So although certain sub-sectors are dead, across the construction sector as a whole, it's uneven, with some sectors (above) booming, others not so much.

[deerohdeer1]

1 hour ago, VancouverGuy said:

Q4 last year the UK unemployment rate was 4.2% - anything less than 5% is what economists refer to as "full employment".

Anyone who wants a job can get one currently.

4.2% of economically active individuals are unemployed. So yes add them to the 10,000,000 others unemployed aged 18-64.

Anyone who worked 1 hour per week in the previous 2 weeks is considered 'employed' officially also so add those people in.

But yes there's a job out there for everyone, I'm sure.

[fellow]

4 hours ago, VancouverGuy said:

Steady on there gents .... the UK unemployment rate is still at effectively "full employment".

The last three months have seen a big ramp up of job cut announcements. Remember, most of these are just the announcements of an intent to cut jobs over varying timeframes and are not immediately dumping workers onto the unemployment figures.

Also remember that, even if the redundancy process starts today, it must go through a four week consultancy period and each terminated employee must be given a statutory week's notice for each year of service which must complete before the laid off employee can sign on the dole (even if paid as gardening leave).

Then consider the redundancy payments paid out which many people would rather run down or use up existing savings before suffering the indignity of signing on and becoming an unemployment statistic.

Only when all of the above has played out will the knock on effects of reduced spending from the unemployed start hitting the wider economy and lead on to further job losses. Sure, many will get a new job relatively quickly but most will likely end up on a lower salary (unless their name is Stewy of course).

Then there's a few months of forbearance before defaulting homeowners get repossessed or choose to sell up due to reduced income. Then there's the knock on effects of the defaults on the whole banking system which further deteriorates the economy and on it goes towards deflationary collapse.

[The_Stars_Are_Aligning]

27 minutes ago, fellow said:

The last three months have seen a big ramp up of job cut announcements. Remember, most of these are just the announcements of an intent to cut jobs over varying timeframes and are not immediately dumping workers onto the unemployment figures.

Also remember that, even if the redundancy process starts today, it must go through a four week consultancy period and each terminated employee must be given a statutory week's notice for each year of service which must complete before the laid off employee can sign on the dole (even if paid as gardening leave).

Then consider the redundancy payments paid out which many people would rather run down or use up existing savings before suffering the indignity of signing on and becoming an unemployment statistic.

Only when all of the above has played out will the knock on effects of reduced spending from the unemployed start hitting the wider economy and lead on to further job losses. Sure, many will get a new job relatively quickly but most will likely end up on a lower salary (unless their name is Stewy of course).

Then there's a few months of forbearance before defaulting homeowners get repossessed or choose to sell up due to reduced income. Then there's the knock on effects of the defaults on the whole banking system which further deteriorates the economy and on it goes towards deflationary collapse.

Good post 👍

[Orb]

32 minutes ago, fellow said:

Then there's a few months of forbearance before defaulting homeowners get repossessed or choose to sell up due to reduced income. Then there's the knock on effects of the defaults on the whole banking system which further deteriorates the economy and on it goes towards deflationary collapse.

So the bank moves more goalposts - inter-generational mortgages, 5x salary lending per salary, more rounds of forbearance, and ultimately a tax-payer bailout. It's never ending.... until it ends. But when will that be? Everything is remarkably resilient/adaptable.

[burk]

1 hour ago, TheChangeIsCast said:

What sector is he in? Construction is a very broad sector, with various unrelated sub-sectors. House and commercial building is on it's arse, which isn't a surprise, but that's only a very small sub-sector of the 'construction industry'. Nuclear, defence, utilities, and rail are all still very busy. Nuclear and energy is particular have gone nuts, and there are wide spread and pretty severe staff shortages with lots of big projects kicking off. Salaries and rates getting pushed higher as projects compete for skills, in 16 years I've never seen so much competition for people.

So although certain sub-sectors are dead, across the construction sector as a whole, it's uneven, with some sectors (above) booming, others not so much.

Residential the last 6 years, when I worked with him before that it was industrial/ commercial units. He was quite down after speaking to couple of recruiters, I'll mention those sectors you've highlighted next time I see him.

[TheChangeIsCast]

5 minutes ago, burk said:

Residential the last 6 years, when I worked with him before that it was industrial/ commercial units. He was quite down after speaking to couple of recruiters, I'll mention those sectors you've highlighted next time I see him.

Yeah worth a mention to him for sure, there is a massive recruitment drive going on particularly with nuclear. People from all different kinds of sectors and backgrounds on my project at the moment such is the drive to get good people in. It's apparently the number one strategic priority at my place, to get people in through the door in order to cope with the pipeline of work.

Hydrogen is bit more early stage but several multi-billion £ projects in the NW and North Wales have just been green lit (all smaller constituent parts of HyNET), and there's big scheme going on in the NE I believe too, but that's a few years behind. But worth keeping an eye on, as it will provide a lot of job once it gets going in earnest.

[Johnno1167]

3 hours ago, Insane said:

I wonder how those figures would alter if we did not have people working 16 hours a week and having their pay made up with Tax Credits? We currently have armies of people job sharing. If Tax Credits were scrapped and one job sharer was forced to do the job full time it would free up the second person sharing the job , they would then need to find a full time job. The figures would change.

There are also many on the sick who are not counted as unemployed, huge amounts of people who have private pensions who have not reached state pension age but given up working or looking for work.

The employment rate is not as rosy as it looks.

Yep.. full employment is not what it used to be . In the 90’s, travelling around the uk, the roads were quiet in the day. Everyone at work . Now it’s busy all day . Ok, anecdotal only .. but does make you wonder how many people do work ? Or, how many real jobs are there to go around ?